FINDING · EVALUATION
In the pre-shutdown scan (Scan 2), Iran's QUIC censorship jumped from 1 domain (0.01%) to 9,000 domains (100%) via complete UDP Initial-packet drops, while DNS-over-TCP censorship spiked from 15.12% to 96.68% of 9,000 queried domains. Both changes preceded the full blackout by roughly 5 days, indicating they were preparatory measures rather than incidental. After the shutdown lifted, QUIC remained 100% blocked while DNS-over-TCP returned to baseline (15.38%).
From 2026-anon-insights-into-iranian — Insights into an Iranian Internet Shutdown · §2.2, Table 1 · 2026 · Free and Open Communications on the Internet (FOCI)
Implications
- Circumvention tools targeting Iran should not rely on QUIC or HTTP/3 as a covert channel; QUIC is now persistently blocked post-shutdown and may remain so as permanent policy rather than event-specific suppression.
- Monitor QUIC and DNS-over-TCP blocking rates as leading indicators: a sudden spike toward 100% censorship of these protocols can signal an impending full shutdown, giving operators a preparation window of ~5 days.
Tags
Extracted by claude-sonnet-4-6 — review before relying.