2016-singh-politics
findings extracted from this paper
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Domestic mesh traceroutes (both source and destination inside the target country) uncovered 5,562 new AS edges not present in standard BGP table–derived topology datasets, far exceeding the 647 new edges found by inside-out/outside-in traceroutes using up to 25 probes. Russia, the US, France, the UK, and Ukraine gained the most new edges.
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A decision tree with linear regression at leaves (DTLR) trained on AS-topology features for 168 countries predicts Freedom House freedom category (Free/Partly Free/Not Free) with 95% accuracy. Average FPI prediction error was 3.47%, and prediction error remained ≤8 points (on a 0–100 scale) 90% of the time under leave-one-out cross-validation.
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IP density (number of IP addresses per person) is the single most predictive feature of a country's Freedom of Press Index. A normalized IP density value of ≥0.167 reliably predicts high freedom of expression, while normalized maximum BGP policy-compliant path length ≥0.643 reliably predicts low freedom.
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Iran's national policy forces all domestic ASes to route through a single national telecom AS (AS 12880), resulting in Iran connecting to only 6 international networks. By contrast, Singapore has 257 domestic ASes connected to 3,022 international ASes despite similar geographic scale.
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Singapore's AS topology — 257 domestic ASes with 3,022 international connections — resembles that of high-freedom countries, yet its Freedom of Press Index is 33 (Partly Free), making it a structural outlier where rich international BGP connectivity coexists with enforced information controls. Our DTLR model predicts Singapore's FPI should be ≥70 (Free).