COVID-19 increased censorship circumvention and access to sensitive topics in China

The COVID-19 Wuhan lockdown caused geolocating Twitter users in China to increase 1.4-fold immediately, remaining 10% above pre-crisis baseline long-term; approximately 320,000 new Chinese users joined Twitter due to the crisis, and the available VPN application's ranking on the Chinese iPhone App Store jumped significantly around 23 January 2020 and maintained that elevated rank.

Crisis Increased Censorship Circumvention evaluation ip-blockingdns-poisoningkeyword-filtering cn

In countries with no Great Firewall-equivalent censorship (Germany, Italy) and in less-censored authoritarian states (Iran — Persian Wikipedia; Russia — Russian Wikipedia) that experienced comparable COVID-19 outbreaks, no analogous spillover to politically sensitive content was observed; Wikipedia engagement in those countries increased generally but did not show disproportionate access to historically censored topics, confirming the gateway effect is specific to high-censorship environments.

Comparison with Other Countries Affected by the Crisis / Table 1 evaluation ip-blockingdns-poisoningkeyword-filtering cn

Once mainland China users circumvented the Great Firewall during COVID-19, they disproportionately followed politically sensitive accounts: international news agencies at 1.31x the expected rate, Chinese citizen journalists at 1.42x, and political activists at 1.23x — all relative to Hong Kong users as a control — while state media accounts saw only a 1.06x increase and entertainment accounts a 0.85x decrease, confirming a selective gateway to censored political content.

Crisis Provided a Gateway to Censored Political Information / Types of Twitter accounts evaluation ip-blockingkeyword-filtering cn

Circumvention activity varied strongly by geographic proximity to the crisis: Hubei province, the epicenter, saw Twitter volume double relative to pre-lockdown baseline and sustain that doubling 30 days after the crisis, while mobility decreases from Baidu location data correlated with Twitter user increases across provinces — but two weeks after lockdown, the elevated Twitter usage could no longer be explained by mobility restrictions or New Year seasonality, indicating crisis-induced circumvention becomes self-sustaining.

Increases in Circumvention Occurred throughout China / Fig. 4 evaluation ip-blockingdns-poisoning cn

Chinese-language Wikipedia views grew from 12.8 million per day in December 2019 to 13.9 million during the Wuhan lockdown (24 January–13 March) and peaked at 14.7 million per day from mid-February through April 2020; the crisis disproportionately increased views of pages selectively blocked by the Great Firewall prior to 2015, of historical Chinese leaders since Mao, and of current officials — categories expected only under a gateway effect — and these elevated levels persisted through May 2020.

Crisis Provided a Gateway to Censored Political Information / Fig. 3 and Fig. 7 evaluation ip-blockingsni-blockingdns-poisoning cn