Community technical analysis of the November 2025 Myanmar disruption concluded the observed symptom cluster — unidirectional throttling, rapid VPN IP blocking, and selective service allowlisting — is inconsistent with submarine cable faults and instead indicates deployment of new national-level traffic filtering infrastructure, consistent with GFW-derived Geedge filtering technology previously documented in Myanmar.

Beginning November 1st, 2025, Myanmar users reported severely asymmetric internet speeds: download speeds were near-unusable while upload speeds remained at normal maximum capacity, a pattern inconsistent with submarine cable faults which typically degrade both directions.

Issue body deployment

A freshly provisioned VPN server in Myanmar was functional for approximately 5 hours before its IP address was completely blocked across all connection methods, indicating the Myanmar filtering infrastructure performs rapid active detection and IP blacklisting of new proxy endpoints.

Issue body detection

During peak disruption periods in Myanmar (post November 1st, 2025), users observed a 'walled garden' effect where the entire internet dropped except for Google and YouTube, which remained selectively accessible — consistent with allowlist-based national firewall policy rather than infrastructure failure.

Issue body deployment

In April 2026, Russia nearly completely blocked Telegram, reducing availability without VPN to 5% during the first ten days; Russia's VPN user base was estimated at no less than 40% of the population. Beginning in mid-April, over 20 major Russian websites and platforms (including Gosuslugi, Ozon, Yandex, Sberbank, VK) began restricting access for VPN users, and Russia introduced a whitelist-based service model permitting only state-approved services under certain network restriction states.

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Article 19 documents that Iran's National Information Network (NIN / SHOMA) was designed with explicit reference to China's Great Firewall as a model, with institutional mirroring: Iran's Supreme Council of Cyberspace parallels China's Cyberspace Administration of China, and both governments share a "cyber sovereignty" doctrine used to justify domestic content controls and cross-border technology transfer. The report frames Iran's filtering infrastructure as deliberately architected to replicate GFW capabilities, not as an independently developed system.

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Russia's TSPU (Технические средства противодействия угрозам) is the national censorship infrastructure operated by Roskomnadzor, deployed inline at Russian ISPs. Technical documentation of its architecture and operating principles has been made publicly available via YouTube presentations by Russian-language researchers. The system is evidently not classified, so circumvention researchers can study its detection logic from these materials rather than relying solely on empirical measurement; a 2021 presentation documents TSPU performing in-path filtering and traffic redirection rather than relying on endpoint-level DNS alone.

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Geedge co-founder Fang Binxing—named 'father of the Great Firewall' in company documents—explicitly linked Geedge's international expansion to China's Belt and Road Initiative in a 2024 speech, and a Geedge job advertisement sought candidates willing to travel to Pakistan, Malaysia, Bahrain, Algeria, and India. This confirms BRI as an institutional channel for GFW-derived censorship infrastructure export, not merely bilateral commercial deals.

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A September 2025 leak of 100,000+ internal documents from Geedge Networks—co-founded by Great Firewall architect Fang Binxing—confirms export of GFW-derived Tiangou Secure Gateway (TSG) to Myanmar, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan, providing those governments with DPI-based filtering, throttling, VPN blocking, and internet-blackout capabilities previously unavailable to them. Pakistan's deployment replaced Sandvine's Web Monitoring System infrastructure after Sandvine was sanctioned and exited in 2023, with Geedge apparently utilizing existing Sandvine hardware. Kazakhstan was the first client, from 2018, and Geedge claims more than 40 global service providers as clients under the Belt and Road Initiative framework.

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During the June 2025 Iran shutdown, circumvention tool performance diverged sharply by transport design. Psiphon's multi-protocol architecture sustained 1.5 million concurrent users—roughly one-third of its normal Iranian base. Lantern's "proxyless" protocol (domain-fronting via CDN, ~40% of Lantern's Iranian traffic) showed moderate success. Tor usage collapsed during the blackout but bridge connections surged and rebounded quickly after lifting. BeePass (serving 500k+ daily users at shutdown onset) used live A/B testing of port/obfuscation-prefix combinations to probe the censors' blocking parameters in real time. The Ceno Browser's P2P network grew from 600 active peers on June 13 to ~8,000 by July 11, indicating that decentralized fallback paths stayed up even during peak blocking.

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